Department of Statistics

By early March 2021, roughly 65 million people in the U.S. — or one out of every five people — had been infected by the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, a new analysis shows. The findings, described in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggest that roughly 60% of coronavirus infections had gone uncounted at that point — adding to a growing body of evidence that the pandemic’s true toll is far greater than official tallies show. Nicholas Irons, a doctoral student in statistics at the UW, is quoted.

The odds of living past age 110 are becoming more likely, according to a new study from the UW, which used mathematical modeling to predict the probability of people becoming “supercentenarians” in the years 2020 through 2100. Michael Pearce, a doctoral student in statistics at the UW, is quoted.

Michael Pearce, a doctoral student in statistics at the UW, and Adrian Raftery, PhD, a professor of sociology, discuss how long humans coild live.

University of Washington Provost Mark A. Richards today announced Dianne Harris will become dean of the College of Arts & Sciences, beginning Sept. 1.

Seattle-based health data company Truveta today announced $95 million in fresh funding and the addition of three new participating health care systems, bringing its total to 17. Tyler McCormick, associate professor of statistics and of sociology at the UW, is quoted.

Michael Pearce, a doctoral student in statistics at the UW, talks about his study quantifying how likely it is that someone could live to extreme ages.

How long can a human live? New research predicts there's a chance that someone in the world will celebrate a 130th birthday in this century. Michael Pearce, a doctoral student in statistics at the UW, is quoted.

Michael Pearce, a UW doctoral student in statistics, and Adrian Raftery, a professor of sociology, discuss the results of their new study.

"The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced in May 2021 that the nation’s total fertility rate had reached 1.64 children per woman in 2020, dropping 4% from 2019, a record low for the nation. The news led to many stories about a ‘baby bust’ harming the country ... But as a statistician and sociologist who collaborates with the United Nations Population Division to develop new statistical population forecasting methods, I’m not yet calling this a crisis," writes Adrian Raftery, professor of statistics at the UW.

Statistics PhD students David Marcano, Daniel Suen, and Hassan Nasif have recieved either NSF Graduate Research Fellowships or honorable mentions.

Take a look back at the last year of the UW's research of and adaptation to the COVID-19 pandemic.

A study by Adrian Raftery, statistics professor, is cited in this article about how much global emissions must fall to halt climate change.

A new study says that carbon emission cuts need to be about 80% more ambitious to stay below 2 degrees Celsius global warming — considered a threshold for climate stability and climate-related risks such as excessive heat, drought, extreme weather and sea level rise. The UW's Adrian Raftery, a professor of statistics, and Pieran Lu, a doctoral student in statistics, are quoted.

The pledges countries made to reduce emissions as part of the 2015 Paris agreement are woefully inadequate, and the world must nearly double its greenhouse gas-cutting goals to avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change, according to research published Tuesday. Adrian Raftery, professor of statistics at the UW, is quoted.

One of the first actions by President Biden after his inauguration was bringing the U.S. back into the Paris climate agreement. A new study from a researcher at the University of Washington shows people how much more we will have to do, to meet the goals in that accord. Adrian Raftery, a professor of statistics, is quoted.